Howard Lindzon - Latest Comments in Deep Market Thoughts…Could we Crash?

Re: Deep Market Thoughts…Could we Crash?

gregorylent — Sat, 21 Feb 2009 19:33:27 -0000

what else is the market *but* mood, a cross-section snapshop of the moment's collective psychology? ... at least among the minds of those in the game? ...

Re: Deep Market Thoughts…Could we Crash?

psuedonym — Sat, 21 Feb 2009 17:13:02 -0000

Why do you say "no" as if we're in disagreement somewhere?

Just because we ALREADY fucking crashed doesn't mean we can't make new lows. But a spade's a spade, and 50% down in a year is a goddam crash, anyway you slice it.

But making new lows means there's a bid, because somebody's buying - just lower than they've bought before! LOL

Re: Deep Market Thoughts…Could we Crash?

howardlindzon — Sat, 21 Feb 2009 13:07:12 -0000

Hate to agrere but seems inevitable

Re: Deep Market Thoughts…Could we Crash?

David Parizek Jr — Sat, 21 Feb 2009 12:57:20 -0000

No, I think we test and then make new lows this summer, almost for certain.

Re: Deep Market Thoughts…Could we Crash?

lube — Sat, 21 Feb 2009 11:06:12 -0000

wow..what an insight! Crappy amount of supply of stock and not enough demand. Woo hooo, truly an eureka moment. You r just like a lot of money manger hacks, who don't know sheetz.

Re: Deep Market Thoughts…Could we Crash?

jason Liske — Sat, 21 Feb 2009 00:39:11 -0000

I think we a ways from a crash...

We had such boom times the boomers are still fat and happy. They are defining the market for better or worse, it doesn't matter what I think or what my 2 and 3 year old think. Boomers have some mea culpa going on for the boom times and leading us into this mess - we crash when they have taken ALL their lumps and can't take more.

Re: Deep Market Thoughts…Could we Crash?

guru — Fri, 20 Feb 2009 21:17:55 -0000

If your friends and clients are just now "at the stage of living in reality with their financial losses and getting to cash" then they haven't been advised well. They should have been out of the market at least since last Oct. and at best since last Jan. or Feb. Even the most basic momentum indicator (the 200-day MA) would have given a hint to what lay ahead way back in Dec. 2007! It's now 35-40% higher than the current Index so its steep downward slope could bring about a possible cross over by later this year (assuming there won't be too much more deterioration from this point forward .... a weak assumption).

Re: Deep Market Thoughts…Could we Crash?

howardlindzon — Fri, 20 Feb 2009 18:39:15 -0000

Preaching to choir sista

Re: Deep Market Thoughts…Could we Crash?

hardaway — Fri, 20 Feb 2009 18:35:45 -0000

Of course we are crashing, and morever I think that the people in the government have known since September that we were, and have been trying vainly to fend it off. At the risk of sounding cavalier, let's let it crash and get it over with. We all just put our pants on one leg at a time, rich or poor, anyway.

Last night I was at a private reception for David Gergen held by a bank that just opened in Phoenix specializing in high net worth individuals. I had a fun time trying to gauge who in the room was truly still a high net work individual, and who was just someone who still had the drag to wear at events. Phoenix is not exactly crawling with high net worth people these days, since most of the community is real estate.

And don't get me started on what I think is the structural change under way in THAT industry. Makes the stock market look like a walk in the park. Stick with your startups, Howard.

Re: Deep Market Thoughts…Could we Crash?

howardlindzon — Fri, 20 Feb 2009 18:20:19 -0000

Would coulda shoulda if you ask me.

Re: Deep Market Thoughts…Could we Crash?

GL — Fri, 20 Feb 2009 18:11:14 -0000

"It feels this morning as if a crash is really upon us."

For a couple of ours today, it looked as if the final implosion of the banks (C & BAC) was going to occur.

Re: Deep Market Thoughts…Could we Crash?

howardlindzon — Fri, 20 Feb 2009 14:50:20 -0000

Sometimes a bad smell really is shit though :)

I am bearish but really just watching so don't use my sentiment as a betting
insi=dictaor

Re: Deep Market Thoughts…Could we Crash?

a guy — Fri, 20 Feb 2009 14:48:12 -0000

smells like capitulation

Re: Deep Market Thoughts…Could we Crash?

Chris Rechtsteiner — Fri, 20 Feb 2009 14:15:32 -0000

There are ALWAYS debts to be paid that are settled in the most painful way possible. Nationalization or not? Totally agree a decision is better than being an armadillo.

Does anyone have the stones to make those calls right now? That, for me, is the larger problem.

Decisive action is necessary b/c MOTR inaction is furthering and propagating instability that isn't necessary or warranted right now.

Re: Deep Market Thoughts…Could we Crash?

TraderMark — Fri, 20 Feb 2009 13:44:09 -0000

Howard, we've had gimmick after gimmick the past decade - a tech bubble, a real estate bubble, and now an everything bubble

Its bigger than even the stock market - its a vacuum of trust in anything at this point. Throw on top our incompetent leadership, every branch except maybe judicial. - state local federal. regulators - sec etc. people will say why bother anymore.

You have lost a generation of investors who "free markets" run for the interests of very few have bloodied. In every asset class. Just my take but I guess they call me a socialist since I think "markets left to themselves will be dominated by the powerful for self interest" ;)

Ask Phil Gramm

Oh wait, its just a mental recession

Re: Deep Market Thoughts…Could we Crash?

psuedonym — Fri, 20 Feb 2009 11:24:03 -0000

Oh, they're working on supply and demand, all right. What you've got to realize is that irrational, inconsistent, and just plain silly moods have ALWAYS been a part of the market. ALWAYS. Mood ALWAYS rules the day, and it's expressed through dollars in a bid/ask. What we've got going on is wilder than most, but at heart it's not different.

Indecision on the part of gubmint is poisoning a lot of the market. Who gets saved? Nationalized or not? Moral arguments aside, an outright seizure and nationalization would be better for stabilizing the market than indecision has been. So, too, would a clear-cut statement that NO nationalization would take place. The only thing in the middle of the road is a yellow stripe and dead armadillos.

Banks are where they are, despite being valid ongoing businesses (in some cases) on a DCF basis, because nobody knows whether the discounted cash flow future value of those businesses will accrue to the current equity holders! Clarity on that would help the situation. Go ahead and wipe 'em the fuck out, or make it clear that you won't!

I wonder, if they had kept Lehman alive, would the house of cards still be standing? I think so.

I also wonder if letting Lehman go was just payback for a certain company not helping out in a previous bailout done years ago ... yes, such a payback would be petty and stupid, but look who was in a position to influence that decision!

Re: Deep Market Thoughts…Could we Crash?

Chris Rechtsteiner — Fri, 20 Feb 2009 11:13:53 -0000

I am not sure the markets are working on supply/demand anymore. They may be, to a lesser extent, but it sure seems to me that everything is based upon mood. Irrational. Inconsistent. Sometimes just plain silly. When mood is ruling the day, nothing good can come from it.

Is there a mashup of cloudy days in NY/CHI and the stock market's performance? If so, please post a link b/c I am pretty sure there is a very unfortunate correlation of late.

Sad. Probably true, too.

Re: Deep Market Thoughts…Could we Crash?

psuedonym — Fri, 20 Feb 2009 11:01:34 -0000

That day probably ain't gonna happen in your lifetime (or mine, we're about the same age).

This ain't winter wheat futures in Kansas.

4-9 there will be a bid. Just might be really goddam low, but there WILL be a bid.

(PS 4-9 is 99.99%)

Re: Deep Market Thoughts…Could we Crash?

howardlindzon — Fri, 20 Feb 2009 10:49:24 -0000

Yes we did but we have not had the locked up no bid day

Re: Deep Market Thoughts…Could we Crash?

psuedonym — Fri, 20 Feb 2009 10:47:22 -0000

Dude, we ALREADY fucking crashed.

Crash talk is SO 2008.

Re: Deep Market Thoughts…Could we Crash?

aweissman — Fri, 20 Feb 2009 09:42:50 -0000

well only time will tell, but my stress levels reduced considerably

Re: Deep Market Thoughts…Could we Crash?

howardlindzon — Fri, 20 Feb 2009 09:39:19 -0000

Good sells a few weeks ago.

Re: Deep Market Thoughts…Could we Crash?

aweissman — Fri, 20 Feb 2009 09:37:38 -0000

Your honesty is always appreciated (I look forward to it)