This is my favorite post that you ever penned. Well done.
howardlindzon
· 1 year ago
You must be a first time reader
tweetip
· 1 year ago
my favorite too - you're finally 'calming' down.
The Fly
· 1 year ago
No. It is genuine. Quit being a Fly hater.
howardlindzon
· 1 year ago
Oh that fly :)
fly reader
· 1 year ago
this is cute... you two having a moment.....
howardlindzon
· 1 year ago
You wrecked it. Go to bed now.
ahat
· 1 year ago
You can be bullish and bearish at the same time. With a deep out of the money three leg switchback options spread you can collect the delta regardless of market direction. If you see the implied volatilities converging on your synthetic you need only buy vega and hedge your near term theta risk. You can do this several different ways, including putting together a reverse infinity brass condor spread on VIX futures with a corresponding knock-out option write on the naked portion of your original synthetic reverse straddle. If that doesn't work just shoot yourself with a cheap dart gun and call it a day.
howardlindzon
· 1 year ago
Lmao
The Flea
· 1 year ago
Wow, talk about meaningless random data.
FranklinBeenz
· 1 year ago
Fuck you . I like Art Cashin.
Despite his senility.
pete
· 1 year ago
art cashin is the only one on cnbc worth listening to- his 1000pt move is his 'wish' to wash out the last of the true believers. so what if it doesnt happen - his reads are money the majority of the time imo.
howardlindzon
· 1 year ago
Whatev er
howardlindzon
· 1 year ago
so nice that you like old wrong people. the signals he used were moved off the floor 20 years ago. he cant find the door to leave.
FranklinBeenz
· 1 year ago
you're a mean mean youngish man .. you've been hanging round the fly too loong
if art was your grandpapa, you'd be singing a different tune
as Ali-G says - R-E-S-P-E-C-T !!!!!
howardlindzon
· 1 year ago
Relax...I like old people. Just not on cnbc
rosswhiting
· 1 year ago
a reverse infinity brass condor spread on VIX futures with a corresponding knock-out option write on the naked portion of your original synthetic reverse straddle.
Wrecked the moment for me. lol.
with the fly on this one. Thx Howard.
Reata
· 1 year ago
Howard - you are reaching the age of people you criticize - what were you saying in August of 2007 when the recession started - or even realized it had started - What were you saying? Say less and you will be respected more....
howardlindzon
· 1 year ago
More than the old farts that's for sire. Was out by january
Betsy
· 1 year ago
Howard, I'm not an investor. I do understand some of the jargon because I was married to a trader and the dinner table was full of it. Jargon and b.s. enough for me to realize Ahat's comment was hilarious. I don't read your site because of what you have to say about the market or the economy. I read it because you're not a whiner. Back to lurking.
rossgreenspan
· 1 year ago
How can I hedge Armageddon but still get exposure to the bull case? I ponder that every night before I slip my gas mask on.
howardlindzon
· 1 year ago
Classic. Good one
Stuart MacDonald
· 1 year ago
Great post Howard.
Spooky
· 1 year ago
Art might be senile, but he still has the best line I have ever heard on financial tv - "this markets tougher than a $2 steak".
howardlindzon
· 1 year ago
he still thinks thats the price at mcdonalds where he buys them. cnbc stopped paying him in 1960
starving artist
· 1 year ago
great post.
gebby
· 1 year ago
how about analysts and there new found sell recommendations based 5x multiples , possible earnings potholes in 2009 despite continued 100% rev and earnings growth and lack of fund flows. the sell recommendations are a significant positive, also this talk of retesting the lows. so easy to see the lows.
howardlindzon
· 1 year ago
So disgusting. Agreed. Not worth betting farm though by any means
gebby
· 1 year ago
howard, i wish i could buy more and stay sane. gazprom was 12 it is now 20 ....where's it going? if i was a big manager i would buy alot more. of course i appreciate your caution.
Vitamin Cow
· 1 year ago
As a portfolio manager recently said,"I am seeing more and more opportunities, but have less and less to work with."
Why not just follow a rules based approach? It keeps me out of my own way.
I like Mr. Faber's paper on SSRN, "Quantitative Approaches to Tactical Asset Allocation". I am up on the year following a variant of the model he proposes:
That having been said the model is 100% in cash, and now looks like a great time to be jumping into stocks!
howardlindzon
· 1 year ago
Thx. I agree for the most part
txchick57
· 1 year ago
On "our" blog, the Housing Bubble Blog, I suggested getting balls to the wall (such as it is for a chick ;))short both in September and December after the Fed meeting. We also talked in May of 2007 about buying long dated puts on Bear Stearns and Lehman because of the potential mark to market issue. Yes, we were just as whippy as John Paulson but we were just retail mullets and can't get anyone to write us custom derivatives. It's been a nobrainer to be short for a year now but we're out and waiting for early next year to get short again.
txchick57
· 1 year ago
Sept and Dec of last year. I started shorting after the fed meeting in September and for a few weeks, I was wondering if the whole world had gone mad.
howardlindzon
· 1 year ago
Great calls thx.. I do think sometime in first quarter could get real messy from commercial real estate
If Goldman is lyying about Blalnce sheets we go to dow 5000 tomorrow
Jim K
· 1 year ago
Well Howard, then it is off to Dow 5,000.
I agree with your sentiment about betting against the end of the world. After all, what good is making a killing if the financial landscape has been completely nuked?
howardlindzon
· 1 year ago
Quite a possibility
IBH
· 1 year ago
Who Sucks? Cramer, Cashen, CNBC! I will give anyone with 40-50 yrs. experience the benefit of the doubt.(Cashen). I do critique your bias toward most commentary that does not fit your model of web 2.0 or web 3.0 as inferior. While the social community is essential going forward, to discount experience like Jeremy Grantham or Marc Faber seems a bit narrow focused.
Who Sucks? Hedge fund managers who chase alpha,beta, delta or whatever and have took on large risk, enabled by their prime broker. These guys and gals are nothing more than half-assed traders whose pedigree (goldman and such) does not give them the right to be called market seers or who should be managing money. These are your younger guns who have little credibility who litter the landscape and ruin the world for self-fame and money ahead of more important global themes that would make the world a better place.
You, on the other hand, seem different and aware of such macro themes. I will continue to read and find interest in your thoughts ahead of most other industry pros.
Jim K
· 1 year ago
My only concern for the optionmonster people is that they are funding their business with as little borrowed money as possible. No room for leveraged cockiness anymore.
howardlindzon
· 1 year ago
They are from what I see
StockRake
· 1 year ago
Positive news is that 1938 was a 30-40 year. We are at the low end on that chart this year as was 1937.
McLarty
· 1 year ago
This chart makes me want to get 300% long. sell 10% out of the money '09's and go drinking.
Glad I sent you that bad karma e-mail last night, might not have caught up on reading you...BTW, sorry 'bout that, I had shitty day...
Ryan
· 1 year ago
My first and last read. You sound like you could be on cnbc, so don't give up a steady cash flow when they make the call.
Jeez, even I have a few ideas - yes ideas, not stock picks or easy money scams -which is what you're all about lazy man. I hope someone takes a plaster caste of your body for the Wall Street Dino museum.
P.S- You speculators might realize you can start your own business or create something. You come across as a bunch of pig headed slime.
j'adoube
· 1 year ago
Privilege is a word.
Priviledge is not a word. It's not Old English. It's not even Old Doofus.
Learn how to spell, Howard, and then you can maybe you can go on to higher learning, such as how to trade.
All Comments
Despite his senility.
if art was your grandpapa, you'd be singing a different tune
as Ali-G says - R-E-S-P-E-C-T !!!!!
Wrecked the moment for me. lol.
with the fly on this one. Thx Howard.
stopped paying him in 1960
Why not just follow a rules based approach? It keeps me out of my own way.
I like Mr. Faber's paper on SSRN, "Quantitative Approaches to Tactical Asset Allocation". I am up on the year following a variant of the model he proposes:
http://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract...
That having been said the model is 100% in cash, and now looks like a great time to be jumping into stocks!
from commercial real estate
If Goldman is lyying about Blalnce sheets we go to dow 5000 tomorrow
I agree with your sentiment about betting against the end of the world. After all, what good is making a killing if the financial landscape has been completely nuked?
Who Sucks? Hedge fund managers who chase alpha,beta, delta or whatever and have took on large risk, enabled by their prime broker. These guys and gals are nothing more than half-assed traders whose pedigree (goldman and such) does not give them the right to be called market seers or who should be managing money. These are your younger guns who have little credibility who litter the landscape and ruin the world for self-fame and money ahead of more important global themes that would make the world a better place.
You, on the other hand, seem different and aware of such macro themes. I will continue to read and find interest in your thoughts ahead of most other industry pros.
Glad I sent you that bad karma e-mail last night, might not have caught up on reading you...BTW, sorry 'bout that, I had shitty day...
Jeez, even I have a few ideas - yes ideas, not stock picks or easy money scams -which is what you're all
about lazy man. I hope someone takes a plaster caste of your body for the Wall Street Dino museum.
P.S- You speculators might realize you can start your own business or create something. You come across as a bunch of pig headed slime.
Priviledge is not a word. It's not Old English. It's not even Old Doofus.
Learn how to spell, Howard, and then you can maybe you can go on to higher learning, such as how to trade.