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There was a true threat that many companies would go to $0. But if you bought 50-60 of them it was a pretty good bet that they all wouldn't goto $0. So even if you lost a few companies to bankruptcy, once the threat was lifted, these stocks were going to take off and make up for any 50-75% losses.
There were many profitable trends in 2009, such as going long gold. But I would say that it is almost impossible to have a really good 2009 without catching the buy big name companies under $5 in Q1-Q2 trend.
This was my post from March 9, 2009. It somewhat goes with your follow the big trend concept. I've definitely had missteps since March. However, nailing this big trend was what mattered.
http://www.chartsandcoffee.com/2009/03/what-was...
It is fun to review your writings.For Q1, Q2 and part of Q3, the market went much higher than I thought it could. Yet, to a certain degree, this was balanced out by the fact that my "junk long" stocks went much higher than I thought they could. Sometimes they were up 40-50-60% in a day. For a while, that was common practice. If they went down 15%, it was like they were down 1.5%.
People always talk about panic bottoms. We were all able to see the ultimate panic bottom.
Look at Denninger from March 5th:
http://market-ticker.denninger.net/archives/852...
"Civil unrest will break out before the end of the year. The Military and Guard will be called up to try to stop it. They won't be able to. Big cities are at risk of becoming a free-fire death zone. If you live in one, figure out how you can get out and live somewhere else if you detect signs that yours is starting to go "feral"; witness New Orleans after Katrina for how fast, and how bad, it can get."
Posted By @ChartingStock
If we do it right it just stays as a human contextual idea machine.
Keep us in line.
Here is my post on March 8th, 2008
http://ibankcoin.com/flyblog/2009/03/08/get-rea...
There is a lot more.
I think that's overly simplistic - why not just employ a robotic then and not follow the markets? Perhaps that's where it is headed - a totally mechanical unemotional exchange? I want to believe what you say, but if it were that easy, there would have been a lot more than a few. es, we learned from the experience both good and bad. We are more informed but also flawed. If the psychologists are right fear trumps greed which will make the struggle to earn back our losses ever the more challenging.
good post and thought, Howard.
Mrs Buttons
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